Coherent Mortality Model in A State-Space Approach

Mortality improvements that have recently become apparent in most developing countries significantly shaped queries on forecast divergent between populations recent years. Therefore, to ensure a more coherent way of forecasting, previous researchers proposed multi-population mortality model the form independent estimation procedures. However, similar single-population model, such approaches might lead inaccurate prediction interval. As result this forecasts, life expectancies and annuities aims generate is underestimated. In study, we propose another new extension joint approach by recasting into state-space framework. A combination augmented Li-Lee O’Hare-Li methods are employed, before transform formulation. addition, study incorporates quadratic age effect parameter better capture younger ages mortality. We apply method gender age-specific data for Malaysia. The results show our latter framework brings significant contribution due incorporation joint-estimate parameters model’s structure. Consequently, improves accuracy.